PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB), TINGKAT INFLASI, KURS MATA UANG TERHADAP NILAI EKSPOR DAN NILAI IMPOR DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

East Java Province is one of the pillars of the national economy with a significant contribution to international trade. The dynamics of export and import values ​​are influenced by various macroeconomic factors both domestic and global. Understanding how the impact of GRDP, inflation, and exchange rates (exchange rates) affects the regional trade balance. This study aims to analyze the influence of GRDP, Inflation Rate, and Currency Exchange Rate partially and simultaneously on Export Value and Import Value in East Java. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data in the form of time series. The population in this study is all annual data regarding macroeconomic indicators of East Java Province, which include GRDP, inflation rate, rupiah exchange rate, export value, and import value from 2000 to 2024. The sample uses all annual data during the 25-year study period. The analysis technique uses stationarity test, Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) test, classical assumption test, hypothesis test. The results of the study show that GRDP has a positive effect on exports (through increasing production capacity) and imports (through increasing purchasing power of the community/industry). Inflation has a negative effect on exports due to increasing prices of domestic goods, but affects the consumption pattern of imported goods. Exchange Rate: Rupiah depreciation increases export value (goods become cheaper on the global market) but depresses import value (goods become more expensive).

Keywords: GRDP, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Exports, Imports, East Java