ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, NERACA PERDAGANGAN, DAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2005-2024

The rupiah exchange rate is a key indicator reflecting a country's economic stability and influencing international trade and financial activities. This study aims to analyze the impact of inflation, interest rates, the trade balance, and foreign debt on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia from 2005 to 2024. The analysis employs multiple linear regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach via EViews software. Comprehensive testing was conducted, including classical assumption tests (multicollinearity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and normality), partial significance tests (t-test), simultaneous significance tests (F-test), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The t-test results indicate that interest rates (Prob. = 0.0301) and foreign debt (Prob. = 0.0000) have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate, whereas inflation (Prob. = 0.8648) and the trade balance (Prob. = 0.5153) do not. The F-test shows that all independent variables collectively have a significant effect on the rupiah exchange rate, and the coefficient of determination (R²) with an R-squared value of 0.9152 indicates that 91.52% of the variation in the rupiah exchange rate can be explained by these four variables.

Keywords: Inflation, Interest Rate, Trade Balance, External Debt, Rupiah Exchange Rate